Drawn from a national sample of 2,400 respondents, the poll indicates that most Lebanese appreciate the need for reform and express some expectation that the current political situation will improve in the future. Results demonstrate dissatisfaction with the government and political institutions, yet a high degree of nationalism and a strong belief in electoral law reform and the democratic process. Fieldwork was conducted May 14 – June 11, 2007.
 Instability of the political situation and the security situation continue to be the problems identified most often by respondents, followed closely by concern about the economy.
30 percent identify themselves with the opposition and 28.4 percent identify with the March 14 coalition, yet the greatest percentage of respondents, 37.2 percent, gave no answer regarding their allegiance. When asked who would win the next elections, 37 percent of respondents indicated the opposition and 34 percent indicated the March 14 coalition.
Survey results regarding the preferred governmental formula, however, demonstrate a slight edge for the March 14 coalition – a marked change from the previous poll. In November/December, support for giving the opposition veto power through increased representation on the Council of Ministers was 55 percent. Seven months later in May/June, the number dropped to 47 percent.
Which of the following governmental formulas is the best for Lebanon now? |
Nov/Dec 2006 |
May/June 2007 |
Enlarge current government to include the opposition with the veto. |
56% |
47% |
Enlarge the current government to include the opposition without the veto. |
18% |
27% |
Keep the current government as is and make no change. |
20% |
15% |
Limit the government to the current majority. |
4% |
9% |
Despite these internal divisions, national identification continues to be strong. Seventy-one percent of respondents claimed they were “Lebanese first, member of a religious group second.”
Both Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and the Parliament receive poor performance ratings, but in a signal of confidence for the Parliament, the performance of individual deputies is generally rated as positive.
In terms of party identification, the current survey shows a significant change in alignment from the previous polls. In November/December, 21 percent responded that Hezbollah was the party that best represented their views. In the current survey, this identification drops to 11 percent.
The poll also demonstrates a significant decline in identification with Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, even among Shia.
An overwhelming majority of respondents continue to believe that a change in the voting system must take place. Support for the equal seat distribution for Muslims and Christians outlined in the Taif Accord continues to grow.
In the May/June poll, respondents expressed their preferences for who they would like to serve as Lebanon’s next Speaker of Parliament, Prime Minister and President of the Republic.
The sample size of 2,400 respondents was weighted by previous voting patterns of eight separate variables – sex, age, occupation, education, geographic area, social class, income and confession. The national sample is weighted proportionally by religious confession. The full sample of 2,400 respondents is comprised of 924 Christians (38.5%), 660 Sunni (27.5%), 660 Shia (27.5%) and 156 Druze (6.5%).
The poll is a collaborative effort between the International Republican Institute and Statistics Lebanon Ltd., in consultation with an advisory body composed of five senior Lebanese academics; Dr. Marguerite Helou, Dr. Melhem Chaoul, Dr. Hind Soufi, Mr. Monir Abu Ghanem and Dr. Mona Fayyad. Analysis of the data and production of this report was conducted by Williams and Associates of Salem, Massachusetts.
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