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LOAC Releases Fifth Survey of Lebanese Public Opinion


Drawn from a national sample of 2,400 respondents, the poll indicates both deep concern about Lebanon 's economy and security, but strong satisfaction with the Doha Agreement and President Michel Suleiman and his policy initiatives. The Lebanese confessions demonstrate unity on issues related to national defense, election timing and national priorities. However, clear confessional divisions arise on matters related to the May civil crisis, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and individual political leaders and parties. Fieldwork was conducted July 3 - July 11, 2008 , the sample is comprised of proportional subsets of the major confessions - 924 Christians; 660 Sunni; 660 Shiites and 156 Druze. Proportional quantities of other variables - age, sex, region and income level - were also factored into the full sample.

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Ninety-one percent of respondents report they are satisfied or very satisfied with President Michel Sleiman. The remarkably positive response to Sleiman cuts across all age, confessional and regional subsets, with people older than 60 years old (67% very satisfied) and Sunnis (58% very satisfied) particularly pleased with the new president.

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With some electoral reforms expected to be enacted by Parliament, 72 percent of respondents communicated their preference that parliamentary elections should happen as scheduled in June, 2009 regardless of which electoral law is used to conduct them. Twenty-eight percent are in favor of postponing the elections if an adequate law has not yet been adopted.

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Sixty-two percent believe that national defense should be the responsibility of government forces (national police and army) alone; and 34 percent of respondents believe that national defense should be jointly assumed by government forces and the resistance.

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The opposition maintains an edge over March 14 coalition in two preference questions related to parliamentary elections. While perception of the opposition's chances in next June's election is stronger, Christian respondents - widely known to be the determinant confessional group in many competitive districts - by a small margin express a preference for candidates allied with March 14.

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Among Shiites the most frequent choice for most appealing leader is Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (50%); the top choice among Sunni is parliamentary Majority Leader Saad Hariri (29%); among Christians it was no one (30%); and 52% of Druze respondents named MP Walid Jumblatt.

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When asked for the two most important issues facing Lebanon today, 70 percent of respondents list the economy. The second highest answer - security - is given by 27 percent of respondents, up from 10 percent in LOAC's April survey. Hezbollah's weapons ranked third as a major issue of concern, at 10 percent.

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